Trump’s US-Canada Deal: Will Carney Agree to Pipeline Talks?

US President Donald Trump says a new trade “concept” with Canada is already on the table. However, his proposal comes with an unexpected twist: the revival of the Keystone XL pipeline. Speaking to reporters in Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday, Trump said the “concept” of a deal like that would be great for farmers. But his pipeline remarks have raised a bigger question: will Canada agree to discuss Keystone XL?

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, however, struck a far calmer tone. In a social media post, he described his latest call with Trump as a good conversation about the future of trade between the two countries. However, his post on X made no mention of Keystone XL, and Ottawa has not confirmed any pipeline discussions. The timing is also significant as the US midterm elections are approaching on Tuesday, while tariffs on Canadian goods remain a political issue in border states such as Michigan and Maine.

Trump Says Canada Will Build and Pay for Keystone XL, as Canada Weighs Its Options

Trump said Canada would build and pay for the Keystone pipeline, while the United States would provide the route. He suggested that much of the route had already been settled. Yet, bringing the project back would be far from straightforward. Former President Joe Biden revoked a key permit in 2021, and Keystone XL was originally developed as a private-sector project. Trump had also hinted in August that the pipeline could return.

The original plan called for transporting approx. 830,000 barrels of oil daily from northern Alberta’s oil sands. The crude would travel to the storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, before reaching refineries along the Gulf Coast. The project carried major economic stakes for Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil exporter. More than 90% of its crude production goes to the United States. TC Energy lost billions when the project was cancelled. It later spun off its crude pipelines into a separate company, South Bow.

Carney Wants to ease Tariff Disputes and a New Pipeline Plan Offers a Different Path

Trade tensions remain another major obstacle. Both countries have imposed billions of dollars in tariffs on each other’s goods in recent months. Trump said last week that a deal was coming soon. However, Ottawa has previously reported limited progress, despite the efforts to ease duties on steel and automobiles. Carney has said a potential agreement should create jobs and improve affordability. He has also stressed that any deal must respect Canada’s languages, culture and sovereignty. Negotiating teams are expected to continue working in the coming weeks. Separately, a spokesperson for Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc had no comment beyond Carney’s post. Energy Minister Tim Hodgson’s office also declined to comment. For now, Keystone XL remains part of Trump’s stated vision, not a confirmed condition of a trade agreement.

Meanwhile, another pipeline proposal could offer a separate route for expanding Canadian oil exports. South Bow and its US partner, Bridger Pipeline, have proposed the Prairie Connector project. The line would transport approx. 550,000 barrels of oil daily from Alberta to Wyoming. It would also reuse some Keystone XL pipeline sections already installed in Canada. South Bow is expected to decide whether to proceed in 2027. Ultimately, the Keystone claim shows how tightly energy and trade are tied together in the Canada-US relationship. Carney has not publicly committed to pipeline talks, so the headline question remains open. The coming weeks of negotiation will show whether Keystone becomes a real bargaining chip or fades once more. Either way, the outcome could have significant implications for Canadian oil exports, tariff relief and the future of North American economic relations.

Web Resources on Trump Carney pipeline negotiations

1. Reuters : Trump floats ‘concept’ of US-Canada deal that includes pipeline talking to Carney.
2. CNN : Trump says he has a concept of a very good deal with Canada.
3. First Post : From Trump’s US-Canada trade deal to Cyclone Murasu approaching Andhra.