South China Sea Dispute: Is Conflict Avoidable?
Overview
The South China Sea is one of the world’s most important waterways. Every year, trillions of dollars in global trade move through its busy sea lanes, linking Asia with Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas. Beneath its waters lie rich fishing grounds, valuable oil and gas reserves, and critical undersea cables that keep the digital economy running. This mix of strategic and economic importance makes the region a global hotspot.
But peace in these waters is fragile. Competing territorial and maritime claims by China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan are intensifying. China’s “nine-dash line,” island-building, and expanding naval presence have triggered pushback from its neighbors and freedom of navigation operations by the United States and other powers. Each new claim, patrol, or legal ruling adds pressure to a crowded sea. The question now is whether diplomacy can prevent the South China Sea dispute from turning into open conflict.
Historical Context: How the South China Sea Dispute Took Shape
The South China Sea dispute did not appear overnight. Its roots stretch back centuries, shaped by historical maps, colonial boundaries, and evolving international law. China points to ancient maritime records and maps to justify its sweeping “nine-dash line,” which covers almost the entire sea. Taiwan echoes the same historical claims, tracing them back to pre-1949 Nationalist China.
By contrast, other countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei, rely on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Under UNCLOS, coastal states can claim an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) up to 200 nautical miles, giving them rights overfishing, oil, and gas in those waters.
Over the decades, several flashpoints have inflamed tensions:
- 1974: China seized the Paracel Islands from South Vietnam.
- 1988: A deadly clash between China and Vietnam at Johnson South Reef.
- 1995: China occupied Mischief Reef, claimed by the Philippines.
- 2012: The Scarborough Shoal standoff between China and the Philippines.
- 2016: The Hague Tribunal ruled against China’s nine-dash line claims.
- 2019: A Chinese vessel rammed a Philippine fishing boat near Reed Bank, leaving its crew at risk.
- 2023: A China Coast Guard ship aimed a military-grade laser at a Philippine vessel near Second Thomas Shoal.
- 2024: Chinese forces injured Filipino personnel while blocking a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal.
- 2025: Philippines bought and received BrahMos missile batteries from India. BrahMos is a supersonic (≈Mach 2.8 to 3), sea-skimming cruise missile with very good accuracy and a ~290 km export range. Currently there is no known defense technology that can intercept BrahMos, giving Philippines an advantage against China in any potential sea conflict.
These moments reveal a steady pattern. Overlapping claims, rising military presence, and no final agreement, leaving the South China Sea a persistent source of regional tension.
Who Claims as part of the South China Sea?
Several countries claim part of the South China Sea. These include:
- China
- Vietnam
- Philippines
- Malaysia
- Brunei
- Taiwan
Among them, China has the most expansive claim. It uses the so-called “Nine-Dash Line” to assert control over nearly 90% of the South China Sea. However, this claim overlaps with the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of other countries, leading to ongoing maritime conflicts.
On the other hand, countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia argue that their claims are based on international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Major Disputed Areas in the South China Sea
The South China Sea is home to several critical maritime zones under dispute. Notably, tensions persist over specific islands and reefs due to their strategic location and abundant resources such as oil and natural gas. Below is a summary of the most contested areas:
Estimated Oil and Natural Gas Reserves in the South China Sea
The South China Sea holds significant energy potential, with proved and probable reserves estimated at approximately 3.6 billion barrels of petroleum and 40.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas, according to Rystad Energy.
Furthermore, the U.S. Geological Survey suggests that undiscovered resources in the region could range between 2.4 to 9.2 billion barrels of petroleum and 62 to 216 Tcf of natural gas, highlighting the area’s substantial yet underexplored hydrocarbon prospects.
South China Sea Reserves by Country, 2023
Recent Developments in Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea
In recent years, the South China Sea dispute has become more intense. Some of the latest developments include:
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China’s coast guard blocking Philippine resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal.
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Approval of a Chinese “nature reserve” at Scarborough Shoal, protested by the Philippines as an illegal claim.
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Increased joint military drills involving the U.S., Philippines, Australia, and allies to counter China’s assertiveness.
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Near-collision incidents, including clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels around contested waters.
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Growing international backing for Southeast Asian nations, with the EU, Japan, and Australia urging respect for international law.
Global Trade Through the South China Sea
The South China Sea plays a vital role in global maritime trade, acting as a major artery for energy and goods transport. In 2023, around 76 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum products were shipped globally, of which approximately 28 million b/d up to 37%, passed through the South China Sea. Notably, most of this traffic flows via the Straits of Malacca, Sunda, and Lombok, emphasizing the region’s strategic significance.
Moreover, as of 2016, nearly 21% of global trade worth $3.4 trillion was routed through the South China Sea, underscoring its economic importance. China led this trade volume, contributing 39.5%, followed by India (30.6%), Japan (19.1%), and Brazil (23.4%).
This highlights why securing freedom of navigation in the South China Sea remains a global priority.
Role of the United States in South China Sea Conflict
The United States has no territorial claims in the South China Sea, but it plays an active role in maintaining freedom of navigation and supporting international law.
Through regular naval patrols, joint military exercises, and alliances with countries like the Philippines, Japan, and Australia, the U.S. seeks to counter China’s growing influence. At the same time, Washington encourages a rules-based international order, which it says is being threatened by Beijing’s actions.
What Can Be Done to Resolve the South China Sea Dispute?
Despite overlapping sovereignty claims, critical trade routes, and abundant resources fueling the South China Sea dispute, constructive solutions remain possible. Below are key approaches that highlight diplomacy, cooperation, and adherence to international law to ensure peace, stability, and maritime security.
In the end, resolving the South China Sea dispute requires diplomatic trust, maritime security cooperation, and a collective vision for geopolitical stability.
Why Rule of Law Is Key to Peace in the South China Sea?
The South China Sea dispute highlights a clash between historical claims and modern international law. While China defends its nine-dash line, its actions often undermine the sovereignty of smaller Southeast Asian nations. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and others rely on UNCLOS to assert their rights, and this rules-based approach offers a fairer and more sustainable framework for managing disputes.
It’s clear that lasting peace and stability in the South China Sea depend on respecting international law and strengthening regional cooperation. In addition, protecting freedom of navigation remains critical for global trade and security. Therefore, supporting smaller nations in their lawful claims is essential to prevent dominance by force and to ensure a balanced regional order.
Web Resources on the South China Sea Dispute
1. Cfr.org: Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea
2. Cfr.org: China’s Maritime Disputes
3. Mofa.gov.tw: South China Sea
4. Yale.edu: South China Sea Dispute reaches United Nations
5. BBC.com: What is the South China Sea dispute?
Final Words
The South China Sea dispute is complex but not unmanageable. While tensions are high, open conflict is not inevitable. Diplomatic engagement, adherence to international law, and confidence-building measures can stabilize the region. No single nation can secure lasting peace alone, collective responsibility is essential.
The world depends on these waters for trade, energy, and stability. Preventing escalation requires compromise, transparency, and political will. If nations prioritize shared interests over unilateral control, the South China Sea can remain a sea of opportunity, not conflict. Please share your thoughts below in the comment section and help us to make this article better. Thank you for reading!
Questions and Answers related to South China Sea Dispute:
The South China Sea dispute stems from overlapping territorial claims, rich oil and gas reserves, vital shipping lanes, and fishing rights. China asserts its “nine-dash line” covering nearly 80% of the sea, conflicting with claims by Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. Strategic interests and U.S. involvement further complicate the situation, making it a global geopolitical hotspot.
The South China Sea is disputed due to overlapping sovereignty claims over islands, reefs, and waters rich in natural resources. It is also one of the busiest maritime routes, handling one-third of global trade annually. Control of these waters provides strategic military advantage and economic dominance, fueling intense competition among regional states and global powers like the U.S. and China.
The key countries involved include China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. Each claims overlapping parts of the South China Sea. Externally, the United States, Japan, Australia, and India engage through freedom of navigation operations and defense agreements. Their involvement reflects not only regional sovereignty disputes but also global strategic competition in maritime security and energy access.
Territorial claims center on the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal. China claims nearly 80% under its “nine-dash line,” rejected by the 2016 Hague Tribunal ruling. Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan contest parts of these areas. The claims are tied to control over fisheries, oil, gas reserves, and critical shipping routes vital to global trade.
China fights for the South China Sea to secure energy reserves, fisheries, and control over strategic sea lanes that handle trillions in annual trade. Beijing also sees the region as vital for national security and global influence. By building artificial islands and militarizing reefs, China reinforces its claim, despite international opposition and rulings against its expansive maritime boundaries.
China and the Philippines mainly dispute the Scarborough Shoal and parts of the Spratly Islands. These areas offer rich fishing grounds and potential oil and gas deposits. The 2016 Hague ruling favored the Philippines, rejecting China’s nine-dash line. However, China continues its presence, while Manila leverages international alliances, especially with the U.S., to counter Beijing’s maritime expansion.
Currently, the South China Sea faces rising tensions due to China’s continued island militarization and harassment of Filipino resupply missions at Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippines, backed by the U.S. and allies, has strengthened patrols. Recent 2025 developments highlight increased naval standoffs, diplomatic protests, and calls for ASEAN unity, underscoring the dispute’s impact on regional peace and trade security.
In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled against China’s “nine-dash line,” favoring the Philippines. The tribunal found no legal basis for China’s vast claims. Beijing rejected the ruling, escalating tensions by increasing military activities and island building. This marked a turning point in the dispute, intensifying global scrutiny and diplomatic pressure on China.
As of now, tensions remain high as Chinese coast guard vessels continue obstructing Philippine resupply missions at Second Thomas Shoal. The U.S. has increased joint military drills with Manila, reaffirming its defense commitments. ASEAN discussions focus on creating a binding Code of Conduct, but progress is slow. The dispute remains central to U.S.-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region.
China claims about 80% of the South China Sea using its controversial “nine-dash line.” This vast claim overlaps with the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. The 2016 Hague Tribunal invalidated China’s claim, but Beijing refuses to recognize the ruling, continuing to enforce its expansive position with coast guard and naval patrols.
China has claimed nearly 80-90% of the South China Sea under its “nine-dash line.” This covers major island groups, including the Paracels and Spratlys. Despite lacking legal recognition, China has reinforced its claim through artificial island construction, military bases, and frequent patrols. The vast claim remains the central source of conflict with Southeast Asian nations and global powers.