An Iraqi soldier stays stationed on his post as a U.S. military convoy leaves a military compound at sunset, with the Iraqi flag, concrete barriers, and base buildings in the background.
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Iran’s Influence to Rise as US Troops Exit Iraq

After more than two decades, the last American troops are leaving Iraq. They will be gone from their final bases by Wednesday, September 30. This exit ends more than 20 years of American military presence in Iraq. Iran and its allies are calling it a victory, since their influence in Iraq runs deep and the United States, who was their biggest obstacle, is leaving. This become important as United States is also fighting a war against Iran at the same time.

The image shows a realistic military base, transport trucks, and an orderly withdrawal as the U.S. soldiers load equipment onto military vehicles as American troops prepare to leave Iraq.

The exit carries a heavy history as the war in Iraq cost about 4,500 American lives. US forces invaded Iraq in 2003 and toppled Saddam Hussein. They left in 2011 but returned in 2014 to help Iraqi forces fight the Islamic State. Now the final 2,500 troops are leaving under a 2024 agreement between Baghdad and Washington. However, many Iraqis fear what comes next.

Iran-Backed Groups Claim Victory and Eye a Bigger Political Role

Iran-backed armed groups are celebrating the US Troops exit. Commander Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri called the exit of US troops a historic win for Iraqi resistance. He says the resistance will celebrate September 30 as the end of a dark chapter. Analyst Jasim al-Bahadli agrees that Iran gains the most and expects such resistance groups to seek more power over security and politics. He says the US presence once balanced Iranian power.

Baghdad wants to bring these groups under state control. However, the plan is behind schedule. It first tied the end of the US mission to their disarmament. That plan has slipped, and the new deadline is June 30, 2027. Three hardline groups; Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH), Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba (HHN), Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS), have shown no sign of compliance. Analyst Renad Mansour expects many armed groups to stay outside state control next year.

Tehran Sees a Regional Win While Some Iraqis Fear the Exit Is Too Early

Iran did not build its influence overnight. Tehran backed Iraqi opposition groups for decades even before Saddam Hussein fell. One of them, the Badr Organisation, was created in Iran in the 1980s. After 2003, such groups returned home and became major political and security players. In addition, the economy binds the neighbours, since Iraq has long relied on Iran for gas and electricity.

Many Iraqis want foreign troops gone, but some fear the timing and the security gap left behind by them. Sunni tribal leader Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, says Iraq is not ready to manage security alone. Islamic State is another worry as Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani says he has noticed Islamic State sleeper cells on the move. In addition, four Iraqi officials say there’s a suspected cell planned suicide attack around the pullout. Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, however, says October 1 will bring full sovereignty.

The US troops leaving Iraq, closes a long and costly chapter in Iraq. Iran and its allies see it as a clear win. However, Baghdad now faces a hard test. It must disarm armed groups, keep Islamic State in check and protect its sovereignty. Iraq has long kept close ties with both Washington and Tehran. The months ahead will show whether it can keep that balance.

Web resources on US troops leaving Iraq 2026

1. Reuters : US forces exit Iraq after two decades, leaving opening for Iran
2. DW.com : US troops exit Iraq after more than a decade.
3. Conversation.com : America’s final military withdrawal from Iraq is a major bonus for Iran.
4. France24 : US forces leave Iraq, raising fears of Iran-backed militias amid power vacuum.
5. AP News : The US military says its withdrawal of troops from Iraq is complete.

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